摘要
针对区域水安全评价中的不确定性,本文采用概率论中的贝叶斯方法对区域水安全状况进行评价,并采用抽样误差正态分布原理估计条件概率。以山东省水资源安全状况评价为例,并与其他评价方法和区域实际水安全状况对比。评价结果表明,贝叶斯方法应用于水安全评价具有简单、实用的特点,能够较为客观的反应区域水安全具体状态。
This paper introduced the Bayes method in probability theory to assess the regional water safety level to avoid uncertainty. Conditional probability was evaluated by the principle of normal distribution of sampling errors. The safety situation of water resources in Shandong province was assessed by applying the method. The results were compared with that obtained by other methods else and regional practice. It showed that Bayes was a simple and practical method for water safety assessment which reflected the regional concrete safety situation objectively.
出处
《四川环境》
2009年第6期89-91,100,共4页
Sichuan Environment
关键词
贝叶斯模型
水安全
区域
评价
Bayes model
water safety
region
assessment
