摘要
俄罗斯是否患上"荷兰病"的问题一直是个学术界近年来争论的焦点。本文根据"荷兰病"的理论模型,分别从国际油价上涨是否导致汇率上升、制造业部门是否表现出"去工业化"现象和工资上涨的效应是否存在这三方面,运用协整检验等实证分析方法,讨论了俄罗斯是否患上"荷兰病"的问题,并综合三方面的实证分析结果,得出了俄罗斯存在一定程度的"荷兰病"现象的结论。
Whether Russia is suffering from ＂Dutch disease＂ has been a focus of debate in the academic community in recent years. Based on the theoretical model of ＂Dutch disease＂ and empirical analysis approaches including co-integration test, this article has discussed whether Russia is suffering from ＂Dutch disease＂ from three aspects： whether rising international oil prices led to the exchange rate appreciation, whether the ＂de-industrialization＂ phenomenon is appearing in the manufacturing sector and whether the wages are rising. According to the empirical analysis results, the author draws a conclusion that there exists a certain degree of＂Dutch disease＂ phenomenon in Russia.
出处
《俄罗斯研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期91-101,共11页
Russian Studies
关键词
俄罗斯
“荷兰病”
资源转移效应
支出效应
实证分析
Russia, ＂Dutch disease＂, Resources Transfer Effect..Expenditure Effect, Empirical Analysis
