摘要
用数值微分和线性拟合化技术对Logistics模型进行了参数估计,由此检验了2005~2007年中国总人口数的误差情况,其中2007年用相关参考文献的等差参数估算方法所得结果的相对误差为5.58%,而本文参数估算所得结果的相对误差为0.114‰,预测取得了理想的效果.
In this paper,parameters of the logistic model are evaluated by numerical differentiation and linearity simulation.The result shows that the forecasting consequence of this method was more effective than traditional methods of referenced literature by checking population of china from 2005 to 2007,in which the relative error of 2007 is 0.114‰ compared with 5.58% of interrelating literature.
出处
《北京工商大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2009年第6期75-78,共4页
Journal of Beijing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition
基金
中央民族大学青年教师基金资助项目(cunA08)
关键词
LOGISTIC模型
人口预测
参数估计
数值微分
线性拟合
logistic model
population prediction
parameter evaluation
numerical differentiation
linearity simulation
