摘要
海湾六国计划在2010年建立单一货币联盟,而经济周期同步性是货币联盟稳定性的重要基础条件。本文从经济周期同步性角度考察海湾六国是否具备货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。本文通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型(VECM),并依据共同趋势和共同周期理论,对海湾六国的经济周期同步性进行了经验分析。分析结果表明:海湾六国不仅在长期内经济周期有共同的随机发展趋势;而且在短期内,经济周期是完全同步的。因此,海湾六国基本上满足货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries （Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates） plan to establish a single currency union in 2010. However, business cycle synchronization is one of the most fundamental conditions for the stability of the monetary union. This paper investigates whether the six gulf countries are equipped with the fundamental conditions for the stability of the monetary union according to their business cycle synchronization. Through establishing the vector error correction model （VECM） and applying the theory of common trends and common cycles, the paper empirically analyzes the six gulf countries in terms of the business cycle synchronization. The empirical results show that the six gulf countries＇ outputs are co-integrated in the long run, and the business cycle of six countries is perfectly and totally synchronous in the short run. So the six gulf countries basically meet the fundamental criterion with respect to the stability of the monetary union.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期22-29,共8页
Journal of International Trade
基金
2009年国家社会科学基金项目(批准号:09BGJ015)的部分成果
