摘要
本文在对中国城镇居民财产分布状况进行描述的基础上,构建了一个可计算的含有个体风险、总体风险和灾难风险的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)。利用数值校准方法对模型进行计算,计算结果表明:不含灾难风险的模型难以拟合中国城镇居民的财产分布状况;当引入全要素生产率(TFP)灾难风险之后,整个模型经济所产生的财产分布会更加地平均,但与此同时也降低了模型结果对资本产出弹性的敏感程度;而当引入资本灾难风险之后,穷人群体持有的财产份额会下降,富人群体持有的财产份额则会上升,从而很好地拟合了中国城镇居民的财产分布状况。分析结果表明,灾难风险的存在确实会对居民的行为模式进而对整个宏观经济状况产生显著的影响;将灾难风险纳入到模型的构建过程中能够增强模型的解释力。
Based on the description of wealth distribution of the Chinese urban residents, the paper constructed a computational dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE） with idiosyncratic risk, aggregate risk and disaster risk. The calibration restdts show us that： （ 1 ） the model without disaster risk can hardly simulate the wealth distribution of the Chinese urban residents; （2） the introduction of total factor productivity （TFP） disaster risk into the model can make the simulation results less sensitive to the elasticity of output with respect to capital, even though it may make the wealth distribution generated by the model more even; （3） the introduction of the capital disaster risk can reduce the wealth share of the poor and increase the wealth share of the wealthy, and hence, it can simulate the wealth distribution of the Chinese urban residents very well. The analytical results tell us that the disaster risk, existing in the real world, may influence the behavior pattern of the residents and hence the macro economy. The introduction of the disaster risk into the model is sure to increase the explanation strengths of the model to the real world.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第11期144-158,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
北京奥尔多投资咨询中心项目"投资者行为与秩序"
中国人民大学985课题"经济增长
收入分配与公共政策研究"
国家社科基金项目"经济增长的收入分配效应研究"(06BJL040)
国家自然科学基金项目"中国居民财产分布的理论模型和政策模拟研究"(70973129)阶段性成果
关键词
灾难风险
财产分布
贫富差距
收入分配
预防性储蓄
Disaster Risk
Wealth Distribution
Wealth Inequality
Income Distribution
Precautionary Saving
