摘要
分析了国内、外相关奥运会奖牌预测研究报道,主要对夏季奥运会奖牌预测进行归纳分析。从方法学的角度,将奥运会奖牌预测研究的模型划分为三类,分别对时间序列预测模型、经验模型及智能化预测模型的国内、外研究动态进行了分析。重点分析了目前奥运会奖牌预测研究所运用的计量经济学模型研究方法及成果。在此基础上,进一步分析了目前相关研究优点和存在的不足,并对当前研究动态和发展趋势进行了分析,指出非线性综合模型、基于交叉性影响因素的预测研究和智能化算法是今后一段时期奥运奖牌预测研究发展的趋势。
This paper makes analysis on a great quantity research report concerned about Olym pic medal prediction at home and abroad, mainly on summer Olympic medal prediction. From the point of methodology, the model of Olympic medal prediction is divided into three categories, and time series forecasting model, empirical model and intelligent algorithm model are analyzed, particularly emphasizing the research methodology and findings of econometric model currently used in the research on the prediction of Olympic medals. Based on it, further analysis is made on advantage and shortcoming of current research, and developing trend and movement research are analyzed carefully. The nonlinearity comprehensive model, prediction research and intelligent algorithm based on cross influential factors represent the trend of development in the future research on the prediction of Olvmnic medals.
出处
《中国体育科技》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期3-7,135,共6页
China Sport Science and Technology
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSK07-08D102)
国家体育总局体育文化发展中心项目(08TYWH146)
关键词
奥运会
奖牌
预测
研究动态
趋势
： Olympic Games
medal
prediction
movement research, trend
