摘要
农地非农化的驱动机制可以概括为社会因素、经济因素以及政策制度因素。在理论分析的基础上,论文利用2001-2005年上海市郊区县分区数据,构建多元线性回归模型进行了定量分析。回归结果表明:①总人口、国内生产总值与农地非农化面积之间存在负相关关系,说明上海市郊区由于总人口和经济的增长,土地集约利用水平也不断提高,在一定程度上缓解农地非农化的压力;②实际利用外资、城镇居民人均可支配收入和农地非农化呈高度正相关关系,说明外资的引进与利用、人民收入水平提高带动的消费需求改变,在很大程度上推进了农地的非农化;③固定资产投资对农地非农化有正向的推进作用。最后论文根据分析结果给出了相关的政策建议。
The driving mechanism of land conversion can be summarized as social, economic, institutional factors. Based on the theoretical analysis, a multiple linear regression model with the data from 2001 to 2005 in Shanghai suburbs was built to statistically analyze the driving mechanism. The results are as follows ： （ 1 ） there is a negative correlation between total population, GDP and the area of land conversion. This indicates that the pressure of land conversion can be relieved to some extent with the increase of total population and the growth of economy, which lead to the improvement of land intensive utilization ; （2） high positive correlation is shown between the actual amount of foreign capital, urban residents＇disposable income and land conversion, which indicates that the introduction and utilization of foreign capital and the increase of income level drive the change in consumption demand to promote the land conversion; （3） fixed assets investment also has a positive effect on the land conversion. Based on the analysis results, some policy suggestions to regulate and control the land conversion are proposed at last.
关键词
农地非农化
驱动机制
逐步回归
Land conversion, Driving mechanism, Stepwise regression
