摘要
目的：建立肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）Ｂｏｘ－Ｊｅｎｋｉｎｓ模型。方法：用游程检验对发病序列进行随机性检验。结果：提示ＨＦＲＳ疫苗应在高危人群和高发地区人群中接种；用Ｂｏｘ－Ｊｅｎｋｉｎｓ模型对建德市ＨＦＲＳ发病作实验预测研究，结果准确。结论：该模型适合于实际预测，不失为疾病预测中快速。
People infected with HFRS of high risk and people in high epidemic areas should be vaccinated with inactivated HFRS vaccine when based on surveillance of disease, future epidemic of HFRS could be evaluated and prevention efficacy of vaccine could be guided with datebase of confident morbidity forecasting. As forecasting of experiment proved well with Box-Jenkins model on morbidity of HFRS in Jiande County, its morbidity forecasting result was accurate and this model could apply to future morbidity forecasting. Box-Jenkins model was a rapid and accurate method for forecasting of HFRS epidemic and it could help to control HFRS epidemic.
出处
《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
1998年第4期246-249,共4页
Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control
关键词
肾综合征出血热
疫苗
模型
疾病预测
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Vaccine Box-Jenkins model Morbidity forecasting
