摘要
目的：开展肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）发生的逐步回归分析，提高测报的准确性。方法：鼠类带病毒状况，用免疫荧光技术检测；同时根据气象资料、人群患病情况进行数据分析。结果：黑线姬鼠密度、带病毒率、降雨量均与ＨＦＲＳ发病人数有显著的相关关系。对上述因子进行逐步回归及多元回归分析，探讨ＨＦＲＳ发病数的消长规律。选择３个月前的降雨量、２个月前的黑线姬鼠带病毒率为因子，预测２个月后ＨＦＲＳ发病人数；选每年春季降雨量为因子，预测该年ＨＦＲＳ发病率，理论预测值与实际值基本吻合。
Based on investigation on ecology of Apodemus agrarius pallas, test of HFRS virus of rodents and statistics of HFRS among human beings in the suburb of Xian, and the correlation analysis in relevent element of HFRS, it is found that the density of Apodemus agrarius pallas, the percent of virus carrieres of rodent and the rainfall are correlated with the patient number of HFRS. The factors above have been analysed with multiple linear regression and stepwise regression. We discussed the regular pattern of patient number fluctuation. Finally, considering the practicieness of forecast, we select precipitation level three months ago and percent of HFRS virus carrieres of rodent two months ago to predict the patient mumber of HFRS two months later, and select spring rainfall to forcast the rate of HFRS patient this year.
出处
《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
1998年第4期241-245,共5页
Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control
