居民资产如何影响消费?——基于1998-2007中国城镇的实证研究被引量：7

How Resident Assets Affects Household Consumption?——An Empirical Study of Wealth Effect in Urban China 1998-2007

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摘要本文基于1998-2007年我国城镇居民消费、收入与资产的宏观季度数据,利用向量误差纠正模型(VECM),对居民资产如何影响消费(即财富效应)进行了系统实证研究。检验结果表明:我国城镇居民消费、收入和资产之间存在唯一的长期协整关系;在这个系统内,短期内只有居民资产对系统均衡偏差具有误差纠正行为。我们还测量到,城镇居民资产的长期边际消费弹性为0.51;近年,人均居民资产每增加1元,人均消费支出将增加0.013元左右。从动态效应上看,居民资产对消费变动的影响是持续的,且贡献度越来越大。 This paper employs the quarterly data of urban China＇s household income, assets and consumption between 1998Q4 and 2007Q4 to examine the wealth effects of asset changes on aggregate consumer expenditures in urban China. Adopting the VECM econometric framework, we are able to demonstrate that the wealth effect of assets remarkably exists in china. We verify that there is one and only one long cointegrating relationship among disposable income, consumption and assets in urban China and we estimate the long-run consumption elasticity of assets as 0.51. In short term, we find that only assets have errorcorrect behavior. The results of variance decomposition analysis show that assets increasing contribute to the fluctuation of consumption as shocks last.

作者张卫涛陈杰

机构地区复旦大学管理学院产业经济系复旦大学管理学院产业经济学系

出处《南方经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第10期18-28,共11页 South China Journal of Economics

基金国家哲学社会科学基金"资产价格波动对居民消费的影响效应:宏观计量分析"(项目批准号:07CJL006) 上海浦江人才计划2007资助项目

关键词居民资产消费财富效应 Resident Assets Consumption Wealth Effect

分类号 F063.2 [经济管理—政治经济学]

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