摘要
本文从理论上梳理了均势生成的一般机制,认为均势这一体系状态的形成和维持主要依靠三种途径,分别是外部制衡、内部制衡和大国的自然成长。在不同的权力结构中,有不同的主导生成机制起作用。在多极体系中,均势主要依靠大国之间联盟关系的形成与转换来维持;在两极体系中,均势的维持主要依靠大国之间的军备竞赛,即内部制衡;在单极体系下,均势依靠权力中心的自然成长得以恢复。利用多极和两极状态下的历史案例,文章检验了这一核心假定,并考察了均势生成机制变化的原因,在此基础上探讨了单极体系下均势回归的可能性。文章认为,在权力结构与生成机制之间,联盟的可获性、制衡的实力门槛以及制衡所负担的成本等三个要素起着因果链条的作用。
This paper examines the generating mechanisms of the balance of power as a state of international regime and their transformation. Three main mechanisms exist capable of generating a balanced international system,namely the internal,external balancing and the natural rise of great powers,which exert different influences in different historical contexts:in a multipolar system,the balance of power is maintained chiefly by the alliances among great powers;under bipolarity,internal balancing occupies a key position and the balance is preserved by the arms race between the two superpowers;while in a unipolar world,only when the centers of powers have emerged in a natural way,can the balance be restored. Using historical cases,this paper tests the above-mentioned hypothesis and applies it to discuss the possibility of the restoration of the balance of power under the unipolar system.
出处
《欧洲研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期1-19,共19页
Chinese Journal of European Studies
基金
南开大学2009年度人文社会科学校内青年项目资助成果
