摘要
为了对电力系统的无功进行有效的控制,必须对无功进行预测.对无功的预测也就是对系统功率因数的预测.利用时间序列分析方法,建立了3种预测模型,分别是自回归模型、滑动平均模型和混合模型.通过对3种模型的比较,最终选用混合模型的时间序列分析方法对电力系统的功率因数进行预测.经实测检验,混合模型分析方法的误差非常小,表明该方法具有一定的实用价值.
In order to control the reactive power in power system effectively, the prediction for reactive power must be carried out. The prediction of reactive power means the prediction of the power factor of the system. In this paper, three types of prediction models are presented by using time series analysis method, which are autoregressive model, moving average model and hybrid model. By comparison of these three models, the hybrid model of time series analysis method is selected eventually to predict power factor of the power system. By comparing between measured values and predictive values, the error is very small, which shows that the method having some practical value.
出处
《宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2009年第3期240-243,共4页
Journal of Ningxia University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
电力无功
时间序列分析方法
预测
reactive power
time series analysis method
prediction
