摘要
近年来,中国航空煤油产量平稳增长,由2000年的630万吨上升到2008年的1103万吨,年均增幅7.2%,占煤油产量的比例从2000年的73.9%上升到2008年的95.2%;消费量由2000年的460万吨上升到2008年的1276万吨,年均增幅13.5%。但是,国内航空煤油的产能未充分发挥,民航用煤油却有约40%依靠进口。究其原因,除了受国内航空煤油供销模式和亚太市场供应过剩等影响之外,国内航空煤油调价滞后和调价不到位,以及航空煤油价格与柴油的比价不合理,导致企业生产积极性较低也是重要的影响因素。预计2010、2015和2020年国内航空煤油需求量约为1600万吨、2800万吨和4000万吨,产能将分别达到2200万吨、3200万吨和4000万吨,基本能够满足国内需求。随着国内成品油价格体系的不断完善,国家将逐步放开对航空煤油价格的控制,国内航空煤油价格将与国际市场接轨,与柴油价格形成合理的比价关系。
In recent years,China's output of aviation kerosene was steadily increased from 6.3 million tons in 2000 to 11.03 million tons in 2008 with the annual increase rate of 7.2%,and took the proportion increased from 73.9% in 2000 to 95.2% in 2008 in the output of kerosene;the consumption of aviation kerosene rose from 4.6 million tons in 2000 to 12.76 million tons in 2008 with the annual increase rate of 13.5%.However,domestic production capacity of aviation kerosene is not fully played,while about 40% of the aviation kerosene is imported,the reason among others include:domestic price adjustment of aviation kerosene is retardant,not timely or thoroughly along with the international oil price;the unreasonable relationship between the prices of domestic aviation kerosene and diesel causes enterprises' low production activity of aviation kerosene.It is estimated that domestic demand for aviation kerosene in 2010,2015 and 2020 will respectively reach about 16 million tons,28 million tons and 40 million tons,while productions will respectively reach 22 million tons,32 million tons and 40 million tons,which can nearly meet the domestic demand.Along with the continuous improvement of the domestic price system for oil products,China will release the control over the price of aviation kerosene,so that the domestic price of aviation kerosene will keep in step with the international market,and form a reasonable relationship with the price of diesel.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2009年第7期15-18,共4页
International Petroleum Economics
