摘要
世界金融市场经历了动荡、恐慌、稳定和重塑信心的过程。相应地,国际油价也经历了暴跌、筑底和反弹的过程。为了应对金融危机引发的经济衰退,世界主要经济体纷纷采取宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策,以刺激经济尽快止跌复苏。2009年二季度以来,世界经济初现复苏"春芽",但石油需求仍然疲弱,国际油价大幅度反弹的原因是石油金融属性的再度体现。2008年9-12月,欧佩克为稳定油价连续3次减产,且执行相对较好,但OECD库存在2009年上半年仍然持续上涨。持续减产使得欧佩克原油剩余产能大幅提高,应对市场供应中断风险的能力大大增强。2009年下半年,估计石油需求将温和回暖,如果欧佩克不增产,OECD国家石油库存将呈下降趋势,从而使世界石油市场逐渐呈现供应偏紧的局面。国际油价正在动荡中寻求新的平衡。综合考虑多方因素,预计下半年多数时间国际油价将在5580美元/桶区间波动。
The world financial market has experienced a process of turmoil,panic,stability and confidence recovery.Accordingly,the international oil price has gone through a process of steep fall,recovery at the bottom and rebound.In response to the economic recession triggered by the financial crisis world's major economies have taken relaxed monetary policies and active fiscal policies to stimulate the economy to stop falling and recover as soon as possible.From the second season in 2009,world economy has shown 'green shoot' yet in weak demand of oil,and the reason for great rebound of the international oil price is the reemergence of petroleum financial attributes.From September to December in 2008,three output reductions have been taken by OPEC to stabilize the oil price and been executed fairly well,but OECD inventories continued to rise in the first half of 2009.Because of continuous output reductions,OPEC's spare capacity of crude oil is greatly strengthened,and therefore the capacity of dealing with the risk of supply disruption is also greatly strengthened.In the second half of 2009,it is estimated that the oil demand will be mildly raised;if OPEC does not increase its output,oil inventories in OECD countries will be in a drop trend,which gradually leads to a situation of supply-tight for the world oil market.The international oil price is seeking a new balance in turmoil.Considering comprehensive factors,it is estimated that the international oil price will change between $55 to $80/barrel in most time of the second half of 2009.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2009年第7期1-6,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
