摘要
本文从经济周期理论出发，认为危机并不是一种独立的现象，而是经济中周期性波动的几个阶段之一，提出对危机成因的理解。对金融危机发生的原因不只看其表现出来的形式，更进一步挖掘其经济学意义上的深层原因，指出国际金融危机尽管具有多种表现形式，其成因看起来也是复杂而多样的，但从根本上来说，还是由于经济体自身的失衡引起的。对一个国家而言，经济失衡主要是指总供给与总需求的不平衡，能引起危机的经济失衡就是指生产的相对过剩，并以美国的次贷危机为例进行了分析说明。由预警金融危机的方法有待改进及对其成因的认识，提出预警金融危机的体系中应该有体现危机根本成因的反映生产过剩的指标，尤其存货投资这一指标是不应被忽视的。
In this paper, according to the theory of the economic cycle, we consider that the crisis is not an independent phenomenon, but one of several stages of the cyclical fluctuations in the economy, and put forward the understanding of the causes of the crisis. On the causes of financial crisis the paper study not only those shown by its form but also excavate the deep reason in economics, point out that despite of the various forms of international financial crisis, and its complex and diverse looks causes, the fundamental cause is the imbalances of economy of its own. Of a country, the economic imbalances mainly refer to the total supply and total demand imbalance, which can lead to crisis being the economic imbalanoe of relative surplus production, and.this paper analysis the sub-loan crisis in the United States as an example of that. By early warning system is to be improved, we think there should be indicators which reflect the overproduction--the fundamental causes in the financial crisis in early warning system, in particular, the indicator inventory investment should not be overlooked.
出处
《科学与管理》
2009年第4期62-64,共3页
Science and Management
关键词
金融危机
经济周期理论
金融危机的成因
先行指标
存货投资
financial crisis, economic cycle theory
reasons of financial crisis, leading indicator, inventory investment
