摘要
建立应急预案是应对突发事件最有效的方法。为解决应急预案不够完备、灵活性差等问题,提出了多阶段应急决策的分析方法。通过对突发事件的风险分析,研究不同场景、不同阶段下应急决策的制定方法,应用WinQSB提供的决策树模型,计算得到不同场景下的可能决策结果。运用多阶段情景决策方法对某市一化工厂的泄漏事故进行实例计算,得出了合理的决策结果,对紧急情况下的现场应急有重要辅助作用,提高了事故现场应急决策的效率和准确性,有效地控制事故风险,减少事故损失,提高决策者应对突发事件的能力。
This article is inclined to propose an improved method known as a multi-stage emergency decision-making approach based on the application of WinQSB. As is known, when an emergency event comes out, what is the most important is to make a clear-minded and purposeful decision that may really help to put out the headache disastrous emergency event in close accordance with the real-time information given. If the emergency decision is correct and scientific, the rescue actions taken are likely to lead to success in overcoming the given unhappy events. So as to minimize the loss and damage. To be exact, the approach to making effective emergency decisions under different situations and stages has been founded on the basis of the risk analysis over a particular emergency accident. This method will help decision makers make timely and well-thought decisions under emergency situations with decision trees and WinQSB. A practical case study over the leakage event that takes place in a chemical plant has been chosen to illustrate how the method is used. The research results may provide a sample of scientific emergency decision significant for resolving such events. The method proposed here is expected to enhance the decision-makers＇ confidence as well as the practical capability of dealing with such events.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期116-119,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(200603746006)
国家自然科学基金项目(70833003)
