摘要
本文提出了基于关系网络的不确定性环境下的决策分析方法,并以三峡水利枢纽工程的投资风险分析和多方案评价为背景,建立了用于风险分析及决策的专家系统:ANALYST。我们将专家经验、判断和领域知识所反映的风险因素之间的结构关系以及优化、仿真模型的输入/输出属性表示为网络形式的逻辑结构,并且通过各风险情形的信度在网络中的传递及合成来确定工程的投资和效益在其值域上的可能性分布,并在此基础上进行多目标决策分析。
In this paper, we present an influence-network based decision method for decision making under uncertain environment and incorporte this method into the expert system ANALYST for the risk analysis and scheme evaluation of the Three-Gorge Project. The structural relations among risk factors/situations ( which are reflected in experts' intuitions, judgements, experience and domain knowledge)and the input-output relations of opitimization or simulation models, are represented in networkbased logic structures, and the belief distributions of the investment and benefit of the project are obtained in the processes of belief propagations and combinations. Influence-network also provide an effective framework for model/knowledge management.
出处
《控制与决策》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第6期8-12,26,共6页
Control and Decision
