摘要
在灰色预测理论模型的基础上,引入等维灰数递补数据处理技术和平滑系数,建立等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型,并采用枚举法搜索各次模型的最优平滑系数,对模型进行了进一步改进。最后,结合金鹗隧道洞口地表沉降实测资料,进行实例验证与分析。研究结果表明:等维灰数递补技术,充分利用了系统响应的最新信息,减弱了系统响应的灰平面,实行动态预测,比常规灰色模型更适合于长期预测。而通过引入平滑系数,充分考虑了各时刻系统信息的重要程度,进一步提高了预测精度,为隧道安全施工,提供了必要的前提。
Based on the grey prediction system model, the same dimension grey recurrence model GM （ 1,1 ） was put forward by introducing the same dimension grey recurrence data processing technique and smooth coefficient. And then, the optimum smooth coefficients of models were obtained by enumeration method for improving the model further. At last, an example was analyzed and verified on the basis of measure data about ground surface settlement of Jin＇e tunnel. The results indicate that： the same dimension grey recurrence data processing technique takes full advantage of the latest system information, decreases the grey - panel of prediction system, and carry out dynamic prediction, so it is more proper for long - term prediction compared to the normal grey model. At the same time, by introducing the smooth coefficient, the importance of system information at every time is fully considered and the prediction precision is improved further, which will provide the necessary premise for safe construction in tunnel.
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
2009年第3期65-69,共5页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
关键词
隧道工程
灰色理论
最优平滑系数法
等维灰数递补技术
地表沉降
预测
tunnel engineering
grey theory
optimum smooth coefficient method
the same dimension grey recurrence technique
ground surface settlement
prediction
