摘要
本文针对中国与欧盟经济波动的相互作用与影响这一日益重要的问题进行了一系列的计量检验。检验结果表明,自1973年老欧盟成立以来,中国经济比欧盟经济的持续性更强,但中国经济的波动幅度较大;;中国经济与欧盟经济的相关性经历了先增强再减弱,到再增强的过程,但总体上相关性程度依然较低;;中国经济波动滞后于欧盟经济波动,表明中国经济对欧盟经济存在较强的依赖性;;在5%的显著性水平下中国GDP与欧盟GDP之间不存在格兰杰因果关系;;中国GDP与双边贸易相互间存在正向的拉动作用,但欧盟经济对双边贸易的影响远比中国对双边贸易的影响大。
This article has done a series of econometrical test of the mutual impact on China and the EU economy. The results showed that since the establishment of the old European Union in 1973,China's economy was more sustainable than the EU economy,but with larger fluctuations. The relativity of China economy and the EU economy has experienced the process which is from enhancement to weakness and to enhancement again,but was still relatively low. China's economic fluctuations lagged behind the European Union economic fluctuations,which indicated that China's economy had a strong dependence of the EU economy. The China's GDP and the EU GDP did not exist Granger causality at the 5% significance level. China's GDP and bilateral trade had mutual pulling effects,but the EU economy had larger impact on bilateral trade than China economy.
出处
《浙江社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第8期24-29,66,共7页
Zhejiang Social Sciences
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目<中国经济周期与世界经济周期的协动性及传导机制研究>(08JC790097)
国家自然科学基金青年项目<中国对接跨国公司R&D资源的理论与实证研究>(70703030)的资助
