摘要
探讨了复杂产品研制过程中技术风险的内涵,建立了费用风险、进度风险、性能风险等三类技术风险之间的关系模型。考虑复杂产品研制过程的并行迭代特征,提出了一种基于设计结构矩阵的多层技术风险仿真评估模型。系统分析了性能风险对进度、费用风险的影响,并依此给出了一种两层抽样机制的仿真算法修正了传统仿真中仅考虑费用风险和进度风险的仿真偏差。在此基础上,给出了定量评估子项目或活动技术风险的似然估计值的方法,为复杂产品研制过程的风险控制提供了依据。
The concept of technical risk in complex product development process was discussed, and a relationship model for three type＇s technical risks （i.e. cost risk, schedule risk and performance risk） was established. A multilayer simulation model for technical risk assessment based on design structure matrix was proposed with considering＇the concurrent and iterative characteristic of complex product development process. The effect of performance risk on schedule and cost risk during simulation assessment was adequately analyzed, and the deflection of traditional simulation assessment which considered only cost risk and schedule risk was corrected by a new simulation algorithm based on two layer sampling technique. Furthermore, a simulation algorithm was given to calculate probability and consequence of activity. It could assess the likelihood estimation of several risks of sub item or activity, and provided a criterion to control risk of development process according to risk value.
出处
《系统仿真学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第16期5207-5211,共5页
Journal of System Simulation
基金
国防基础科研项目(D2120060023-06)
关键词
产品研制过程
仿真
风险评估
设计结构矩阵
product development
simulation
risk assessment
design structure matrix
