摘要
传统的系统可靠性是基于串／并联模型，利用概率方法来计算的．在有人为参与的不确定性复杂系统中，存在许多难以量化的因素，无法采用传统的可靠计算方法评价其可靠程度．文中提出了可靠信度的概念，将证据理论引入复杂系统的可靠性评价中．提出了利用证据理论进行系统可靠性专家意见综合的方法，并探讨了不同权重的专家分级评判的方法。
Traditional method based on series or parallel probability model may not be adequate for evaluating the reliability of certain complex systems where human and uncertain factors could not be quantified. The concept of reliable credit is invoked that gives rise to the so referred to “evidence approach”.It synthesizes the experts' opinions and ranks the experts in groups according to their level of authority so as to establish the process of evaluation.
出处
《西安交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第8期100-103,共4页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University
基金
"九五"国家科技攻关计划课题资助项目
关键词
证据推理
系统可靠性
信度
可靠性评价
evidence reasoning system reliability credit reliability evaluating
