摘要
本文基于BEKK模型和GARCH均值方程模型分析了房地产价格、货币供应量与经济增长的波动相关性以及它们的各种波动对经济增长率的影响。研究发现:房价的波动以及房价与货币供应量的联动对GDP增长速度有显著影响,会导致GDP增长率的下降;但房价的波动对经济增长的波动没有显著影响,而且货币供应量与房价的联动变化非常剧烈,房价与经济增长的联动对经济增长的波动影响也不显著。这说明应该控制房价波动,但是目前中央银行没有必要动用货币政策去直接干预房地产价格。
Based on the BEKK model and the GARCH mean -value equation model, this paper analyzes the volatility correlations among real estate price, money supply and economic growth, and examines the impact of various volatilities on economic growth. It has been found out that the volatility of real estate price and the co - movement between real estate price and money supply have significant impacts on GDP growth rate, and furthermore lead to decline of GDP growth rate. The volatility of real estate price growth rate does not significantly affect economic growth rate volatility, while the co - movement between money supply and real estate price change sharply, and the co - movement between real estate growth rate and economic growth rate does not show significant influence on economic growth rate＇s volatility. The conclusion is that the volatility of real estate price should be controlled, but currently it is not necessary for the central bank to directly intervene in real estate price.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第8期114-123,共10页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
2007年国家社科基金重大项目<以人为本的中国金融全面协调与可持续发展研究>(07&ZD014)
2006年教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目<中国金融国际化中的风险防范与金融安全研究>(06JZD0016)阶段性研究成果
