摘要
根据中国科学院天山积雪雪崩研究站1978-2007年降水和气温的月平均资料以及在全美范围内选择参证站点得到的其他气象因子,利用CLIGEN模型分别模拟出日序列气象数据,统计出多年月平均降水量、多年月平均最高温度和多年月平均最低温度。选择模型有效系数E和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为评价指标。最终确定HIBBING站点为最优参证站。HIBBING站点的模拟多年月平均降水量、月平均最高温度和月平均最低温度的模型有效系数E分别为0.980 0、0.956 3、0.996 5,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为7.1%、10.70%、8.30%。从而确定了CLI-GEN模型在天山西部中山带的适用性。
The Water Erosion Prediction Project （WEPP） models are intended to replace the Universal Soil Loss Equation for predicting soil erosion in the United States. The WEPP programs are process-based models that operate on a daily time step to estimate soil, vegetation, and surface residue conditions when a rainfall event occurs. This information is then used to predict the infiltration, runoff, erosion, and sediment loss for each individual event, and then long-term estimates are made using summations of the single event predictions. This paper describes the history of the model development and the major components of the WEPP models and provides brief examples of how they may be applied by action agencies. CLIGEN is a stochastic weather generator which produces daily estimates of precipitation, temperature, dewpoint, wind, and solar radiation for a single geographic point, using monthly parameters （means, SD＇ s, skewness, etc. ） derived from the historic measurements. Unlike other climate generators, it produces individual storm parameter estimates, including time to peak, peak intensity, and storm duration, which are required to run the WEPP and the WEPS soil erosion models. Station parameter files to run CLIGEN for several thousand U. S. sites are available for download from this website： also data and software to build station files for international sites. With the exception of Tmin, Tmax and Tdew temperatures （changed in January 2004）, daily estimates for each parameter are generated independently of the others. With the current random number generator, subsequent runs on the same machine made with identical inputs will produce identical results. The paper focused on the adaptability of climate generator in the intermediate zone of the West Tianshan Mountains based on the CLIGEN model as a research tool. Results show that the CLIGEN model to simulate the value and distribution of precipitation and temperature are fitted with actual value well. We select the available coefficient E of model and meaning absoluted percentage error（MAPE） as the index sign of most excellent selection station, finally select HIBBING station as the most excellent station. Thus the paper definites the applicability of CLIGEN model in the intermediate zone of the West Tianshan Mountains finally.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期499-505,共7页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金(40471027)
