摘要
本文基于2002—2007年的年度数据,采用灰色系统理论方法,对我国科技产出与科技投入及其关联关系进行分析和预测。结果显示:目前我国科技成果登记数的发展主要由科技活动人员投入推动,属于低层次的劳动密集型科技发展模式,预计2008—2012年这种状况将得到一定程度的改善;技术市场成交额和发明专利产出数受科技活动经费的影响最大。
Based on the data about inputs and outputs of sci-tech activities in China during 2002-2007, this paper analyzes and forecasts outputs and inputs of sci-tech activities in the future and the correlative relationships between them by the grey system theory. The results shows that： the enhancement of registration number of scientific and technological achievements is mainly promoted by the input of sci-tech staff, which belongs to the low-level output mode,and is improved during 2008-2012 to some extent;the transaction value in technical market and the patent output are determined by sci-tech funds.
出处
《技术经济》
2009年第7期22-26,共5页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70572001)
河南省教育厅软科学基金项目(2009B630005)
关键词
科技活动
科技产出
关联分析
趋势预测
sci-tech activity
sci-tech output
correlative analysis
trend forecast
