摘要
为了系统分析经常项目顺差对我国经济的长期影响,该文找出了多个受经常项目顺差影响、同时对产出有着不同贡献的变量,与产出的关系进行计量经济研究,按照其对产出增长的正负贡献将其分为收益变量和成本变量,然后将其与产出具备协整关系的估计参数值纳入收益-成本模型计算收益-成本比,结果远大于1,表明保持经常项目顺差对我国有着重要意义.同时分析了我国经常项目顺差的结构,指出了其脆弱性,而加强对海外的直接投资可为经常项目顺差的可持续性提供更为多样的保障.
In order to systematically analyze the long-run impact of the current account surplus on China＇s economy, variables which are affected by the surplus and at the same time have different contribution to output were determined. Econometric research on the relationships between these variables and output was then conducted. The variables were divided into return and cost variables according to their positive or negative contribution to output. Finally their estimated values, which had co-integration relationships with output, were put into the returu-cost model to compute the ratio. It was much greater than one. This result shows that it is important for China to maintain a current account surplus. Meanwhile the structure of China＇s current account surplus was analyzed and it was found to be volatile. More guarantees arc needed for its sustainability, while encouraging more overseas investment.
出处
《哈尔滨工程大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期847-854,共8页
Journal of Harbin Engineering University
关键词
顺差
效应
收益
成本
回归
current account surplus
effect
return
cost
regression
