摘要
规划风电场短期测风数据的测试相关预测(Measure-Correlate-Predict MCP)是反映风电场风能长期平均水平的主要技术手段,对于预测规划风电场代表年年发电量具有重要意义。然而工程实践中,气象站长期参考数据常受到各类客观因素的影响,数据质量不能满足MCP要求,进而造成对规划风电场风能资源的错误评估。NCEP/NCAR数据是由美国环境预报中心(NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)联合推出的再分析数据集,该数据作为一种可替代的长期参考数据得到了广泛的应用。本文对NCEP/NCAR数据在风能资源评估中的应用进行研究,提出了适用于该数据的MCP分析方法——风指数法。通过算例分析后发现,以NCEP/NCAR再分析数据为长期参考数据,风指数法为计算方法的短期测风数据MCP分析原则具有较高的可靠性和工程实用价值。
Measure-Correlate-Predict （MCP） is not only a primary technical method to evaluate the development level of wind resource of a wind farm in plan, but it can also determine the annual energy production. The result of MCP can be influenced by the long term wind reference data, which means that if the long term wind reference data is low in credibility, the result of MCP is also unreliable; and then the wind resource assessment of the wind farm in plan can be false. However, in engineering practice, the long term wind reference data from meteorological stations can be affected by some objective factors, such as the new buildings around the wind masts; small trees around the wind masts can grow up to 20m or even higher, which would also affect the wind data. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, which are produced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, is widely used as an alternative long term wind reference data. The dataset is available from January 1 in 1948 to the present and data samples are recorded every 6 hours. Surface wind data and 10 m wind data are available and are saved on a grid at 2.5 degree resolution at different air pressure levels ranging from 10 hPa to 1000 hPa. This paper studies the application of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset in the wind resource assessment, because of the low resolution of the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset and the general MCP methods, such as the regression method, the Weibull scale method and the matrix method, are not sufficient any more; therefore, a new MCP method, named as wind index, is presented. For evaluate the feasibility of the dataset and the new MCP method, a case study is carried out. The calculated energy production of the studied wind farm, which is based on the long term wind reference data from meteorological stations and NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset are compared. The result shows that the calculated energy production is very close to real energy production, which means that different long term reference wind data and different MCP methods show almost same development level of wind resource. Therefore, it can be concluded that the combination of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset with wind index MCP method is a very reliable MCP calculation principle and can have a good practical value.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期1233-1237,共5页
Resources Science
