摘要
通过构建粮食产量重心模型,定量分析了1990年～2005年中国粮食生产时空格局演进过程。结果表明:中国粮食产量重心呈现出"北上西进"的态势,粮食产量重心移动的速率不断增大,粮食产量增长的空间波动性逐渐增强,产量优势区的空间格局尚不稳定。从资源、经济、技术、政策等方面深入剖析了粮食产量重心移动的驱动机制。耕地资源的空间格局及其变动趋势是驱动粮食产量重心移动的客观基础,北方地下水资源开发利用是粮食产量重心移动的关键因素,食物消费结构变化是粮食产量重心移动的直接因素,科技进步、农村经济发展不平衡以及区域化的粮食支持政策是粮食产量重心移动的重要驱动力量。最后探讨了粮食产量重心移动的区域环境、经济及社会效应。
Grain security is a considerable challenge to the world in the 21 century, especially to China. The pattern of grain-output has changed greatly since the reform of the grain market, the accelerating urbanization and fast industrialization. In this paper, the model for the center of gravity of grain-output was built, and the change of grain-output pattern was analyzed from 1990 to 2005 with the model. The results showed that： 1） from 1990 to 1998, the grain-output center-of-gravity moved towards northeast at the speed of 7.6 km/year. In total, it moved 60.8km northward and 6.4kin eastward; 2） In the period of 1998 to 2003, the grain-output center-of-gravity moved towards southwest at a speed of 16 km/year. Therefore, it moved 63.8km southward and 48.1km westward in all; 3） In the last period of 2003 to 2005, the grain-output center-of-gravity moved back to northeast at the speed odf 41.2 kin/year. In other words, it moved 82.3 km northward and 46.8km eastward in all; 4） During the entire period of 1990 to 2005, the grain-output center-of-gravity moved remarkably from the south and east to the north and west of China, and the moving speed of grain-output center-of-gravity was increasing. Therefore, it can be summarized that the regional grain growth was unbalance, and the spatial patterns of the advantageous regions of grain-output were unstable. The driving mechanism for the changes of grain-output center-of-gravity was discussed from different aspects, including resources, economy, technology, and relative policies. Firstly, the movement of grain-output center-of-gravity was based on the spatial pattern of farmland and its changing tendency. Secondly, the key factor for the changes of grain output center-of-gravity is the development and utilization of groundwater in north China, while the direct cause for it is the adjustment of food consumption structure. Thirdly, the technology advancement, the imbalanced development of rural economy, and regional policies to support grain production are the driving forces for the movement of grain-output center-of-gravity since 1990. In the end, the effects of such change or movement were discussed. The changes of grain-output center-of-gravity have aggravated droughts in north China, reduced the agricultural land-use productivity, worsened the imbalance of regional economy, and altered the commercial flows of grain products.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期1188-1194,共7页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(编号:40635029)
国家重点基础研究计划(编号:2006CB400505)
