摘要
煤炭作为基础能源产品,对于我国国民经济持续健康发展具有非常重要的战略意义。通过对1949-2008年间我国原煤年产量的数据进行统计分析,发现我国年度原煤产量序列是非平稳时间序列,采用ARIMA模型进行预测分析可以达到良好的效果。建立我国原煤年产量的ARIMA(1,1,3)模型,模拟效果较好,预测误差较小,可用来预测未来我国的原煤产量。
As one of the basic energy sources, coal is very important to the sustaining and healthy development of China＇s economy. By analysing statistically the data of the output of our country＇s coal in 1949-2008, it isfound that annual coal output in China is not a balanced time series. Therefore, it is suitable to use ARIMA model to forecast and analyse, and the effect is exact.It is concluded that ARIMA（1,1,3）is suitable for annual output of China＇s coal. Its simulation effect is exact, and forecasting error is very small. It can be used to forecast coal output in China.
出处
《未来与发展》
CSSCI
2009年第7期62-64,47,共4页
Future and Development
