摘要
根据１９９３ 年“新疆地震减灾综合研究”课题的分析结果，认为阿图什地区是新疆未来５～１０年发生６．５级以上强震的危险区之一。有关人员对阿图什地区加强了监视，进行了跟踪分析，作出了中长期至短期不同时间尺度的预报。结果对应了１９９６ 年３ 月１９ 日的新疆阿图什６．９ 级地震。地震发生后，又据余震序列和前兆资料分析结果，成功实现了５．３ 级强余震的临震预报。预报过程证明，对中长期预报所确定的地震危险区，针对其地震活动和前兆异常发展的动态变化进行连续分析，从空间演化图象和时间的进程变化上跟踪研究。
Based on the research result of subject “Synthetic Study on Earthquake Disaster Reduction” in Xinjiang in 1993, it is thought that the Atushi area is one of the strongly seismic risk areas in Xinjiang in the following 5～10 years, so the monitoring and tracing analysis at Atushi were strengthened, and medium long term and short term predictions were given by related personnel. On March 19,1996, a earthquake with M S 6.9 occurred in Atushi, Xinjiang, which proved former predictions. After that, the impending earthquake prediction of a strong aftershock (M S 5.3) was successfully given again. This whole prediction procession shows that if the seismicity and precursory anomalies in the seismic risk regions determined in medium long term predictions can be analysed continuosly and studied on the track of their spatial and temporal evolution, it's possible to gradually reduce the prediction range in time and space.
出处
《内陆地震》
1998年第2期110-118,共9页
Inland Earthquake
关键词
地形变
地震空区
长期预报
中期预报
地震预报
Ground deformation anomaly\ Seismic gap\ Long term prediction\ Medium term prediction\ Short term earthquake prediction.
