摘要
本文依据中国大陆近期调制强震密集发生的特点，提出了中强震、强震的调制模式及其对大震的预报意义，并从非线性动力学的观点讨论了调制中强震、强震的成因。结果表明：中国大陆调制强震出现时空密集后，４年内往往有８级左右大震发生；云南地区连续出现２～３次调制中强震后，３年内发生６级以上强震；典型地震带大震前的中强震调制模式则在时间上表现出调制中强震、强震的连续发生，随着大震的退近，震中附近发生非调制中强震，在空间上，大震发生在调制中强震密集区的附近。
Based on the high occurrence frequence of the modulation strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland in recent years,this paper offered the modulation mode of strong and moderate-strong earthquakes,evaluated its significance in large earthquake prediction,and discussd the cause of modulation moderate-strong and strong earthquakes from the view point of nonlinear dynamics.Finally,we came to the following conclusion:the large earthquake with M=8 will occur in 4 years after the high occurrence frequence of modulation strong earthquakes in time and space in Chinese main land appears;if the modulation moderate-strong earthquakes have occurred twice or three times in Yunnan region,the major earthquake with M≥6 will follow them within 3 years;in typical earthquake zone,the moderate-strong earthquake modulation mode before large earthquake acts as continuous occurrence of strong or moderate-strong earthquakes in time;non-modulation moderate-strong earthquakes will occur near the epicentre of major earthquake which will soon come,and in space,the major earthquake will occur near the dense area of strong and moderate-strong earthquakes.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第3期211-220,共10页
Journal of Seismological Research
关键词
调制模式
强震
中强震
预报意义
地震预报
Modulation mode,modulation moderate-strong earthquake and modulation strong earthquake
