摘要
This paper reviews some aspects of evaluation of climate simulation, including the ITCZ, the surface air temperature （SAT）, and the monsoon. A brief introduction of some recently proposed approaches in weather forecast verification is followed by a discussion on their possible application to evaluation of climate simulation. The authors suggest five strategies to extend the forecast verification methods to climate simulation evaluation regardless significant differences between the forecasts and climate simulations. It is argued that resolution, convection scheme, stratocumulus cloud cover, among other processes in the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） and the ocean-atmosphere feedback are the potential causes for the double ITCZ problem in coupled models and AGCM simulations, based on the system- and component-level evaluations as well as the downscaling strategies in some recent research. Evaluations of simulated SAT and monsoons suggest that both coupled models and AGCMs show good performance in representing the SAT evolution and its variability over the past century in terms of correlation and wavelet analysis but poor at reproducing rainfall, and in addition, the AGCM alone is not suitable for monsoon regions due to the lack of air-sea interactions.
This paper reviews some aspects of evaluation of climate simulation, including the ITCZ, the surface air temperature （SAT）, and the monsoon. A brief introduction of some recently proposed approaches in weather forecast verification is followed by a discussion on their possible application to evaluation of climate simulation. The authors suggest five strategies to extend the forecast verification methods to climate simulation evaluation regardless significant differences between the forecasts and climate simulations. It is argued that resolution, convection scheme, stratocumulus cloud cover, among other processes in the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） and the ocean-atmosphere feedback are the potential causes for the double ITCZ problem in coupled models and AGCM simulations, based on the system- and component-level evaluations as well as the downscaling strategies in some recent research. Evaluations of simulated SAT and monsoons suggest that both coupled models and AGCMs show good performance in representing the SAT evolution and its variability over the past century in terms of correlation and wavelet analysis but poor at reproducing rainfall, and in addition, the AGCM alone is not suitable for monsoon regions due to the lack of air-sea interactions.
基金
supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No 2005CB321703)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Innovation Research Group Fund (Grant No 40821092)
