摘要
本文从能源价格的角度出发,在定义能源约束量化指标的基础上,建立了能源约束对出口贸易结构影响的动态计量模型,并从长期和短期两个角度,分析了能源约束对出口贸易结构的动态影响。研究结果表明,从短期看,能源约束通过直接的价格冲击和间接的生产要素部门转移,带动贸易结构的优化调整;从长期看,能源约束对出口贸易结构的调整方向具有不确定。
Beginning with the energy price and based on the definition of energy constraints intensity, this paper establishes the dynamic econometric model to describe the effect of energy constraints on exporting trade structure. The dynamic effect of energy constraints on export trade struc- ture in the long run and short run is analyzed. The empirical study shows that energy constraints leads the adjustment of trade structure by direct energy price impact and indirect factors transfer in the short run, and the adjusting direction of energy constraints on exporting trade structure is uncertain in the long run.
基金
浙江省社科重点研究基地规划项目(浙江省对外贸易生态利益评估及维护策略)
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2007AA05Z401)的资助
关键词
能源约束
出口贸易结构
动态影响
Energy constraints
Export trade structure
Dynamic effect
