摘要
文章运用空间统计与空间计量的分析方法,根据长三角132个县市区的统计数据,进行了区域经济增长收敛性的实证研究,结果发现长三角132个县市区经济增长存在着显著的空间依赖性或空间自相关特征,因而若采用标准的β收敛方程会使得估计结果出现有偏与不一致;而若采用考虑了空间依赖性或空间自相关因素的模型进行估计,则其结果显示,虽然长三角县市区经济增长的收敛方向并没有改变,但是其经济收敛的速度却明显下降,且在统计上显著。这一发现不仅证实了新古典增长模型所反映的增长机制仍然决定着长三角经济增长的基本面,新经济增长因素只是减弱了长三角地区经济收敛的趋势,并没有从根本上改变经济增长收敛的方向;而且从更小空间单元测度的层面刻画了长三角经济增长的空间依赖性特征。
The paper finds evidence of significant spatial autocorrelation or spatial dependence of economic growth of 132 counties, cities or regions in Yangtze River Delta by using spatial statistical and spatial econometrical techniques. Therefore, statistical estimate with standard convergence equa- tion would lead to biased and inconsistent results. Taking spatial autocorre- lation into account, the paper still finds evidence of convergence tendency of the economic growth of 132 counties, cities or regions in Yangtze River Del- ta. But the speed of economic convergence is significantly falling, and the result is statistically significant. Its findings affirm that the growth mecha- nism explained by neoclassical growth model has been dominating the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta, and the neo-economic growth factors which have slowed down the convergence only, would not essentially change the tendency of convergence in the Yangtze River Delta. And it also portrays the spatial dependence feature of economic growth in Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of smaller spatial unit.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第7期100-109,共10页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(70803030)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(08JC790065)
上海市教育发展基金会晨光计划(2007CG47)
关键词
长三角地区
空间统计与空间计量
空间依赖性或空间自相关
经济收敛
Yangtze River Delta
spatial statistics and spatial econo-metrics
spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation
economic convergence
