摘要
根据上海地区1875—2006年梅雨参数资料,采用多种统计方法,在考察上海梅雨特征量气候统计特征的基础上,讨论了上海梅雨特征量的趋势、周期、概率分布型的气候变化,并分析了它与长江中下游梅雨气候变化的异同。结果表明:上海近百年入、出梅时间均存在较为显著的推迟趋势,在1940年代以后出现转折。与1940年代以前相比,1940年代以后入梅时间偏晚的概率增加,出梅时间出现异常晚(早)的概率增加(减少);梅雨量及梅雨强度异常偏多的概率增加;梅雨期异常偏长(偏短)的概率也有所增加(减少)。近百年梅雨期长度和梅雨量虽略有增加,但趋势并不显著。上海近百年入梅时间、梅雨期长度及梅雨强度分别存在22年、4.2年和3.3年左右的变化周期;而近百年梅雨量和出梅时间未出现显著的变化周期。上海梅雨与长江中下游区域梅雨在气候统计特征上较为一致,但在周期及其气候演变特征上存在差异。
The climatic change characteristics of Meiyu in Shanghai in past a century are examined in this paper using Meiyu data from 1875 to 2006. The basic climatic features of Meiyu in Shanghai are basically in accordance with those in the mid- and lower-reaches of Yangtze River. The onset time or ending time for Shanghai Meiyu （SM） shows significant postponing trend over the past a century and more. And 1940s is a distinct turning decade for them. After then, the probability of late onset of SM increases; the probability of abnormally late （early） outset of SM increases （decreases）. Furthermore, the probabilities for abnormally large rainfall amount or rainfall strength e of SM are also greater after 1940s; abnormally long （short） duration time of SM tends to increases （decreases）. The variation trend is not clear for the duration time and rainfall amount over the whole years discussed although they have a slight increase after 1940s compared with those before 1940s. The significant period length for the onset time, duration time and rainfall strength of SM are around 22, 4, 2 and 3.3 years, respectively while its rainfall amount and ending time exhibit no obvious period within the years investigated. In addition, the climatically statistics of SM are in common with regional meiyu over the mid- and lower-reaches of Yangtze River to much extent. But the period characteristics and climate change of SM differ much with regional Meiyu.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第B12期76-83,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40875056)
中国气象局气候变化专项项目"华东南降水强度
极端降水对全球变暖的响应"
"华东区域气候变化评估报告"
上海市科委专项项目"上海城市化导致的气候变化及其与能源消费的相互影响"共同资助
关键词
上海
梅雨
气候变化
Shanghai
Meiyu
Climatic change
