摘要
在太阳活动与地震相关性研究的基础上，指出了在周期性太阳活动的调控下，地震活动也显示出明显的周期性演化。地震除存在１１年周期外，还存在２２年周期，后者形成了本世纪以来地震的４个活跃期和４个平静期。云南在地震活跃期中，大震的时间间隔有愈来愈缩短的趋势，并按Ｔｘ＝ΔＴ１／２的规律演化。在一个活跃期中，最后一个大震的时间间隔比这个规律规定的时间间隔更短。如果某个大震的爆发时间与由这个规律预测的时间相差（一般是提前）５０％以上，就意味着本地震活跃期的大震从此结束。根据这个规律。
n the basis of research on the relation between solar activity and earthquake,it is pointed out that the seismic activity shows periodicity under the modulation of solar activity.Besides the cycle of 11 years the seismic activity has another cycle of 22 years which formed four active periods and four quiet periods since this century.During a seismic active period in Yunnan,the eruptive date interval between two large events becomes shorter and shorter and complies with a accelerating law of Tx=T1/2.The interval of the last two large events in a seismic active period is shorter than the value predicted by the accelerating law.If the eruptive date of a large event is 50% earlier than the predicted date,it means that this large earthquake will be the last one in the seismic active period.According to the accelerating law,the trend of large earthquake for future three years in Yunnan is predicted.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1998年第2期86-91,共6页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
余新河科技课题
关键词
大震加速率
地震预测
云南
地震活跃期
Seismology Accelerating law of large earthquake Earthquake prediction
