摘要
为试图解决当前有关干旱（旱灾）指标的片面性，本文提出了农业旱灾系统（ＡＤＳ），并设计了描述农业旱灾灾情的模型：Ｅ＝ｋ＊Ｍ＊Ｈ＊Ａ。农业旱灾系统由气象干旱（Ｍ）、水利抗旱（Ｈ）、农业承旱（Ａ）及农业旱灾灾情（Ｅ）等四个要素组成。每一要素均由若干区域性指标进行刻划。在分析陕西省农业旱灾特点的同时，建立了陕西省农业旱灾系统的框架，并利用各种资料分析了陕西省农业旱灾灾情。分析结果表明，由该模型计算的陕西省各县级单位的农业旱灾灾情和几十年来的实际资料是相吻合的，模型是可靠的。而且，通过模型和实际情况的对比，能够为研究农业旱灾灾情形成机制提供更好的佐证。
n the basis of current researches on drought,the authors put forward a concept of Agricultural Drought System (ADS) and a model for describing the ADS Effects:E=k*M*H*A.The ADS consists of meteorological drought (M),Hydrological antiDrought (H),agricultural droughtBear (A) and agricultural drought effects (E).Each of the factors may be desribed by several regioncel indices.After analyzed the characters of agricultural drought in Shanxi Province,the authors constructed the frame of the Agricultural Drought System of Shanxi Province,and analyzed the drought effects of the province using varous data.The results show that the data obtained by the model are compatible with the real drought in several decades.Furthermore,the comparison between the modeling values and the real values is very helpful to find out the mechanism of the regional disaster effect.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1998年第2期29-36,共8页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
农业
旱灾
旱灾灾情模型
陕西
Agricultural drought system Agricultural drought effect model Shanxi Province
