摘要
利用多普勒雷达体扫描资料对风暴进行实时地自动识别、跟踪、结构分析和临近预报。风暴的识别基于某个连续区域的体积和雷达反射率大于给定的体积阈值和反射率阈值；用矩心跟踪法匹配相邻两时刻的风暴，对风暴的合并与分裂进行了处理；根据风暴在过去各个时刻的中心位置和体积，利用最小二乘法进行线性外推来预报其在下一时刻的位置和面积。结果表明本方法能较好地识别、跟踪和警戒强对流性天气。
A methodology is presented for the real time, automated identification,structure analysis, tracking and short range forecasting of storms with Doppler weather radar volume scan data. A “storm” is defined as a continuous region where the specified thresholds for both volumetric size and radar reflectivity are exceeded. The “centroid tracking” technique is employed to match the storms at one time with those at the following, and mergence and division have been taken into account. Based on the least square analysis on the time series of the central position and size of a storm, its new position and size within a short period can be predicted with linear extrapolation. The result shows that this method can be a useful tool for the identification, tracking and warning of severe convective weather.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1998年第2期223-229,共7页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
关键词
风暴
自动识别
矩心跟踪法
风暴预报
storm automated identification,tracking and forecasting,centroid method
