摘要
文章构建IS-LM-BP模型并借助1994年1月～2008年6月(174个样本)月度时间序列数据,对我国物价波动及其传导机制进行实证研究。结果发现:外汇储备、进出口贸易和物价之间存在长期协整关系;短期和长期内货币供应量和外汇储备对物价波动均产生正向冲击;进出口贸易是物价波动的格兰杰原因,但外汇储备不是物价波动的格兰杰原因;脉冲响应证实进出口贸易和货币供应量短期内减缓物价波动,但是长期内对物价波动冲击效应显著,加剧物价波动。由此可见,在开放经济发展过程中,不能忽视物价波动的外部传导机制,内外经济问题都需要高度关注。
Thispaper constructs an IS-LM-BP model to study China＇s price fluctuations and its dynamic transmission mechanism by using the time-series data from February 1994 to June 2008 （174 samples）. It finds that there exists a long-term co-integration relationship between foreign exchange reserves, import-export trade and price fluctuations; both monetary supply and foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on price fluctuations in the short and long term; import export trade is the Granger cause of price fluctuations while foreign exchange reserve is not the Granger cause of price fluctuations; impulse response confirms that import export trade and monetary supply slow down price fluctuations in the short term, but there is a significant impulse effect on price fluctuations in the long-term, which intensifies price fluctuations. Therefore, it argues that the external transmission mechanism for price fluctuations should not be ignored in the course of economic development and opening-up, and that domestic and foreign economic issues need attention simultaneously.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期69-74,共6页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
2007年度国家社会科学基金(07CJL010)
关键词
非外汇储备
进出口贸易
货币供应量
CPI波动
foreign exchange reserve
import export trade
monetary supply
CPI fluctuation
