摘要
本文主要运用计量经济学的方法就中韩建立自由贸易区对中韩两国净出口与就业的影响进行了实证分析。实证分析主要分三步:第一步,分析了FTA的建立对两国之间净出口的影响;第二步,分析了净出口的变动分别对中韩两国GDP的影响;第三步,分析了两国GDP与失业率之间的关系,从而得出FTA的建立对两国就业的影响。结论为:若在2009年中韩建立自由贸易区,中国对韩国的贸易逆差会减少64.9196亿美元,韩国对中国的贸易顺差会减少64.9196亿美元;自由贸易区的建立会使中国的GDP增加约0.426%,韩国的GDP减少约0.938%;会使中国的失业率下降约0.069%,韩国的失业率上升约0.157%。
With an econometrics approach, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on how the establishment of Sino-Korean FTA influences the net export and employment in the two countries. The present investigation can be divided into three steps： 1）The analysis of how the FTA changes the net export between the two countries; 2）The analysis of how variations of net export affects GDP figures in both countries; and 3）The analysis of how GDP figures relates to unemployment rates in these two countries, and 4） the influence of FTA on employment. The paper draws the following conclusions： provided that the Sino-Korean FTA is established in 2009, the Sino-Korean trade deficit will drop by US $ 6,491,960,000, while the Korean-China trade surplus will drop by US $ 6, 491,960,000; the FTA will increase China＇s GDP by 0.426% and reduce Korea＇s GDP by 0.938%; and unemployment in China will decrease by 0.069% as a result, while unemployment in Korea will increase by 0.158%.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期56-63,共8页
Journal of International Trade
基金
广东省2007年哲学社会科学"十一五"规划课题"推动我国与韩国自由贸易区建设的实证研究"的资助
项目批准号(07E05)
广东外语外贸大学科研创新团队项目(项目序号:GW2006-TB-011)等的资助
关键词
FTA
净出口
就业
实证分析
FTA
Net export employment
Empirical analysis
