摘要
本文就建国以来我国耕地面积和粮播面积的时序变化进行了深入的分析。作者在１９４９年～１９９５年全国粮食生产数据库的支持下，从变化趋势和变化机制两个方面，对中国耕地面积和粮播面积的时序特征进行了定量研究；在此基础上，分别应用综合增长法和灰色等维递补法对耕地面积和粮播面积进行了动态预测，结果表明：到本世纪末（２０００年），我国耕地面积将是９４００万公顷、粮播面积可保持１０８００万公顷；并分析了达到上述预测结果的可能性和艰巨性。
The temporal variation of China's farmland area and grain crop sown area sinces the year 1949 are studied comprehensively in this paper. Supported by the database of China's national grain production, the author studies the temporal variation characteristics of China's farmland area and grain crop sown area quantitatively in two aspects: temporal variation tendency and temporal variation mechanism. Based on the temporal variation regularity obtained above, China's farmland area and grain crop sown area are predicted by “comprehensive dynamic prediction method” and “equal dimensional GM(1,1) dynamic prediction method”. The prediction result is that China's farmland area will be 94 000 thousand hectares and China's grain crop sown area will be 108000 thousand hectares by the year 2000.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
1998年第1期36-43,共8页
Progress in Geography
关键词
中国
耕地面积
粮食
播种面积
时序变化
China, Farmland area, Grain crop sown area, Temporal variation, Dynamic prediction
