摘要
采用逐步回归周期分析和平稳随机序列分析的方法。把水稻螟虫数量变化的时间序列分解为周期项和随机项,经叠加后用于长期数量预测,预测规模:Y(t)～P(t)+S(t)
By using of the motheds of stepwise regressive periodiic analysis and stationarystochastes sequence, the times series for the long term prodiction of populationdynamics of ricestem borer were divided into periodic term and random term,the following model was used: y (t)～p (t) + s (t).
关键词
水稻
螟虫
数量
预测
时间序列分析
ricestem borer
prediction of population dynamics
time series analysis
