摘要
以长江流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量、成纱品质指标,以及产量组分、纤维物理性能资料,建立GM(1,1)动态模型,对长江流域棉花新品种产量与纤维品质的发展趋势作了预测。结果表明:皮棉产量、单株铃数、衣分、主体长度、细度、成熟度和成纱品质均呈上升趋势;而铃重、单纤维强力与断裂长度为下降趋势。这将为育种家调整育种目标,改进选择技术提供依据。
The grey dynamic model for forecasting is a main content of the grey system. In this study, a grey dynamic model, GM(1,1), was built using the 10 years' ( from the middel 1970s to the late 1980s ) data of lint yield and its components, count strength product ( GSP ) of yarn, and fiber physical properties obtained from the Cotton Regional Tests in the Yangtze River Valley in order to forecast the developing tendency of lint yield and fiber qualities of new Upland cotton varieties. The results indicated an increasing trend in both lint yield and CSP, which were expected to reach 105.90 kg and 3078, respectively, by the end of the 1990s. There was also an increasing trend in the number of bolls per plant, lint percentage, fiber length, fineness and maturity which might attain the values of 22.79 bolls per plant, 40.39%, 30.24mm, 5933 m/g and 1.97,respectively,by the end of the 1990s. However, a decreasing trend was found in boll weight, fiber strength and breaking length which were estimated to be 5.03 g/ boll, 3.63 g and 20.17 km, respectively, by the end of the century.
出处
《江苏农业学报》
CSCD
1990年第3期45-50,共6页
Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences
关键词
棉花
产量
纤维品质
灰色动态模型
Cotton
Lint yield
Fiber quality
Forecast
Grey system model
