台风麦莎渤海转向的可预报性研究被引量：19

Study on the Predictability of the Recurvature of Typhoon Matsa(0509) in Bohai

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摘要利用MM5模式研究了2005年第9号台风"麦莎"在渤海向东北转向路径的可预报性。试验用不同的积云参数化方案、不同的预报时效分别从确定性和集合预报角度对"麦莎"在渤海向东北方向的转向过程做了模拟。结果表明,"麦莎"在渤海的转向可预报时效为48小时左右。不同的积云参数化方案对台风麦莎路径的48小时预报结果显示台风均转向东北,预示"麦莎"基本不会直接影响北京。60和72小时的预报结果显示,Kuo和Betts-Miller积云参数化方案的台风模拟路径与实况比较接近,而Grell和KeinFritch积云参数化方案的台风模拟路径却偏向了实际台风位置的西北,台风有可能直接影响北京。研究表明,对于台风麦莎而言,时效超过两天的转向预报可信度较低,Kuo和Betts-Miller积云参数化方案的预报准确性较高。 MM5 through using various cumulus parameterization schemes and various leading times from both deterministic and ensemble forecast points of view.The results show that the simulated tracks with 48h leading time at 1200 UTC on 7 Aug.2005 with various cumulus parameterization schemes all turn to the northeast and consequently will not have a direct impact on Beijing.When the leading time extends to 60 and 72 hours,the simulated tracks with the predictability of the recurvature of typhoon Matsa（0509） in Bohai on August 9,2005 was examined with Kuo and Betts-Miller cumulus parameterization schemes are still close to the observations, while the simulated storms with Grell and Kain-Fritch schemes deviate to the northwest of the real track and thus may affect Beijing directly.The better performance of Kuo and Betts-Miller schemes in predicting the sudden turning of Matsa in Bohai is also confirmed in the ensemble forecast.An uncertainty of forecast with Kuo and Betts-Miller cumulus parameterization schemes was observed to be smaller than that with Grell and KainFritch schemes.The predictability of Matsa sudden turning to the northeast at Bohai could be around 2 days.

作者高拴柱孟智勇杨贵名

机构地区国家气象中心北京大学

出处《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2009年第2期8-14,共7页 Meteorological Monthly

基金国家自然科学基金NSFC40730948 国家重点基础研究计划2009CB421504资助

关键词台风麦莎路径集合预报可预报性 Matsa typhoon track ensemble forecast predictability

分类号 P315.7 [天文地球—地震学] P444 [天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

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