摘要
对产出与通胀关系的研究传统上更多关注产出缺口对通胀水平的影响,而默认接受潜在产出对通胀水平影响"中性"的约束。基于中国季度经济数据,采用状态空间—卡尔曼滤波方法分解总产出为潜在产出和产出缺口两部分;在放弃潜在产出对通胀影响"中性"的约束的基础上,利用分位回归的方法对不同通胀水平下的变量关系作详细刻画。结果显示:潜在产出和产出缺口对通胀率皆存在显著正向影响,且在不同通胀水平下,产出缺口的影响力度存在明显差异。
Former studies on the relationship of output and inflation rate pay more attention on the output gap and inflation rate, while accept the constraint that potential output holds no impact on inflation rate. Considering period factor, this study decomposes the real GDP into two parts potential output and output gap by the State- Space Kalman- Filter method based on the quarterly data from China, and then consturcting quantile regression models which takes the GDP deflator as dependent variable and the ouput gap and differential potential output as independent variables. The empirical results show that, the impact of potential output on inflation keeps not neutral but positive, and the impact from output gap presents different to different rates of inflation.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2009年第4期42-47,共6页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
教育部人文社会科学2007年度重大项目<中国地区间收入分配差异与劳动力转移的经济增长效应分析>(07JJD790145)
关键词
产出分解
潜在产出
产出缺口
通货膨胀率
output decomposition
potential output
output gap
inflation rate
