摘要
我国天然气客户规模日益庞大,客户分布、用气结构等更加复杂,需要建立评价体系和数学模型对客户进行评价,为认识客户价值、提高客户管理水平、把握市场发展方向提供有效手段。从客户的用气水平、用气特性、信用状况和发展潜力等方面构建了含有10个评价指标的客户评价体系,并根据天然气行业特点设计了各指标的计算公式。采用层次分析法建立了客户评价数学模型。编制的计算程序能根据天然气市场的区域特征和供需态势的变化特点对判断矩阵进行调整,使模型具有较强的适应能力。采用该指标体系和数学模型对某管道上的实际客户进行评价、计算。综合排名前3位客户包括两家城市燃气客户和一家综合性客户,其共同特点是用气量大、可承受气价较高。从分析结果看,城市燃气用户最有价值,应大力开发;工业燃料客户应有选择地发展天然气价格承受能力较强的客户群;天然气发电用户应控制性地适度发展。分析结果与国家的天然气利用政策一致。
Natural gas customers are increasing in huge number in present China and they scattered in different areas resulting in complicated consumption structure of natural gas. It becomes necessary to build up an evaluation index system and a mathematical model on natural gas customers, which provides an effective way for getting a full knowledge of customer value, enhancing the management level, and control the market orientation, etc. Therefore, a complete customer evaluation index system was set up with ten evaluating indicators from four aspects on customers: gas amount level, gas consumption feature, credit quality, and consumption potential; while a mathematical model was then established on that by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The programmed computation procedure can adjust the judgment matrix according to regional features and supply/demand trend in the natural gas market, in this way this model becomes more flexible for different conditions. Field practices of this index system and model were carried out on the actual customers along a certain pipeline. The former three clients, two from urban fuel users and one integrated user, are characterized by a large amount of gas consumption and high price bearing capacity. This field study shows that there is great potential for developing urban fuel gas users; the industrial users should be those who have higher price bearing capacity; and the natural gas users should be under control in a better way. Study results are well in agreement with the Chinese National Policy on Natural Gas Utilization.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期112-114,共3页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
中国石油天然气股份有限公司天然气与管道分公司"天然气市场客户评价及动态数学模型"研究项目(编号:G2007108)的部分成果
关键词
天然气
客户评价
指标体系
数学模型
层次分析法
natural gas, customer, evaluation index system, mathematical model, Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)
