摘要
基于灰色预测理论,探讨了灰色预测模型在城市降尘污染预测中的可行性,以实例为基础,应用灰色预测模型对城市降尘环境污染预测,并进行了检验。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型预测结果经过精度检验,后验差比值C=0.43,小误差频率P>0.95,精度较高;用灰色理论预测城市降尘环境污染,灰色预测模型具有较高预测精度、方便实用等优点,该方法可作为环境监测指标预测工具之一。
Based on the gray system theory and example, the feasibility of city dust prediction model was explored and tested. The results showed that： the accuracy of GM （1, 1） model tested are Posterior margin ratio C=0.43 and frequency of small error P〉 0.95, which meet the accuracy level. Gray prediction model has higher prediction accuracy, convenient and practical advantages Etc. The method can be used as one of indicators of environmental monitoring forecast tools.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第6期241-243,共3页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
伊犁师范学院科研计划项目"奎屯市城市降尘环境污染特征及环境质量评价"(2008YB034)
关键词
灰色模型
城市降尘
环境污染
gray model, city dustfall, environmental pollution
