摘要
文章分析了长江中下游夏季旱涝年前期冬春太平洋海温特征分布，揭示了旱涝年前期太平洋海温“强信号”的分布特征，提出了夏季中国长江中下游区域旱涝年低纬海温纬向反位相模型．为了研究长江中下游旱涝成因，还进一步探讨了北半球大气环流动力结构对北太平洋海温热力异常时空分布的响应特征及其相关链物理模型框架，揭示出北太平洋海温不同区域热力结构对北半球环流型特征影响的动力学机理及其类似经向波列特征．另外，还建立了区域旱涝前期海洋－大气时空相关的统计－动力模型，并提出了强信号因子响应判别拟合度方法．
he characteristics distributions of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are analyzed for the Pacific region in winter and spring in earlier stage of summer drought/flood years in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River and distribution characteristics of strong signals of SST over the Pacific region in earlier stage of drought/flood years are revealed. Based on this finding, a reverse phase model is presented for SST abnormality of lower latitudes corresponding to drought/flood years in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River. In order to know the causes of drought/flood formationm, some further analyses are made for the dynamic structure of atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere responding to the spatial and temporal distribution of SST thermal abnormality of North Pacific and physical frame of correlationchain model. The dynamic mechanism about the influence of thermal structure of North Pacific SST in different regions on the atmospheric circulation pattern of the Northern Hemisphere and the characteristics similar to the meridional wave train are revealed. Besides, a statisticdynamic model is set up about spatial and temporal correlation between sea and atmosphere in earlier stage of drought/flood. The discriminate fitness method of the strong signal factors is given.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第S1期48-57,共10页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家"九五"重中之重科技项目
关键词
旱涝
海温
相关链
Drought/flood Sea Surface Temperature(SST) Correlationchain
