摘要
养老保险隐性债务是困扰着中国养老保险改革的核心问题。与国内已有研究主要对计划终止时债务进行测算不同,本文利用精算方法测算了另外两种隐性债务——当前参保人口债务和开放系统债务的规模。通过测算,本文发现:2000年以前参保人口的缴费远远不能满足自身养老金发放的需要;但是,得益于我国养老保险巨大的扩面潜力,持续不断的新参保者会使社会统筹基金的收支状况在未来20多年内不断好转;从新参保者一生的缴费和养老金收益情况看,其能否真正为解决当前参保人口债务作贡献还取决于未来工资增长率与贴现率的相对大小和具体制度设计;在现行制度框架下,若未来工资增长率大于贴现率,新参保者都是纯受益者,且女性的受益程度高于男性,新参保者不会真正为解决当前参保人口债务作贡献,而仅仅是推迟了养老金危机爆发的时间而已。基于以上研究结论,本文对建立我国养老保险长效机制提出了政策建议。
Implicit pension debt （IPD） is the key issue which troubles China＇ s pension reform. Unlike the papers that estimate accrued-to-date liabilities, this paper uses actuarial method to estimate the size of two other kinds of IPD current workers and pensioners＇ liabilities and open-system liabilities. The results indicate that the contribution of participators in 2000 will be far from covering the needs of their future pension benefits, but due to the vast potential of coverage extension in China, continual new entrants will gradually make the financial status of social pooling funds better in the future twenty years. From the point of new entrants＇ contributions and benefits during the whole life time, whether they will contribute to the settlement of current workers and pensioners＇ liabilities in 2000 depends on the relative size of wage growth rate and discount rate in the future and concrete pension provisions. Under the present pension framework, if the wage growth rate is higher than the discount rate, new entrants are net gainers and female gains much more than male, so new entrants will not in deed contribute to the settlement of existing liabilities but just delay the pension crisis. Based on the above conclusion, this paper puts forward some suggestion of establishing long term effective mechanism of China＇ s pension system.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第3期44-50,共7页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“偿还养老金隐性债务研究”的资助(批准号:04BJY087)
中山大学经济研究所基地建设经费资助
