摘要
目的定量评价辽宁省沈阳市日平均气温短期变化对居民呼吸系统疾病日均死亡率的影响。方法运用半参数一般递加模型,在控制长期趋势、气压和季节等混杂因素的基础上,分析沈阳市1992～2000年日间平均气温与居民日呼吸系统疾病死亡的关系。结果呼吸系统疾病死亡率与日平均气温呈反"J"型关系,最适日均气温为22.3℃,日均死亡率曲线在低温区间(<22.3℃)的水平与长度均明显高于高温区间(>22.3℃),≥65岁年龄组是气温升降变化的易感人群。慢性阻塞性肺疾患(COPD)死亡率随气温的降低呈单调递增趋势,肺炎死亡率对高温区的气温增加更敏感。结论沈阳市居民日均呼吸系统疾病死亡率与日平均气温呈反"J"型关系。≥65岁老年人应提高防护意识以减少因气温变化导致的呼吸道疾病的发生。
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the impact of short-term changes of daily average temperature on residents＇ daily mortality rate of respiratory diseases in Shenyang city. Methods Adjusting for long-term trends of air pressure and seasonal factors, the semi-parametric generalized additive model was used to study the relationship between short-time daily average temperature and daily respiratory system disease mortality of the residents from Jan. 1,1992 to Dec. 31,2000 in Shengyang. Results A graphically significant ＂J＂ shape relationship between mortality caused by respiratory diseases and ambient temperature was found. The optimal temperature corresponding to low mortality was 22. 3℃. The level and length of daily death mortality curve in low temperature （ 〈 22. 3℃ ） was higher and longer than that of in high temperature （ 〉 22. 3℃ ）. The elderly were more sensitive to temperature changing. The mortality caused by COPD （ICD9：490. 0 - 496. 9） showed a monotone increase as the temperature decreasing. And the mortality caused by pneumonia （ICD9：480 - 486） was more sensitive to temperature changing at high temperature. Conclusion The graphically relationship between ambient daily average temperature and daily respiratory system disease mortality of townsman is a significant ＂J＂ shape.
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期481-482,共2页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
关键词
日平均气温
日呼吸系统疾病死亡率
半参数一般递加模型
daily average temperature
daily respiratory system disease mortality
semi-parametric generalized additive model
