摘要
应用灰色系统理论，由油井重复压裂前的递减产量，生成相应的一阶累加序列，由累加序列建立了灰色预测模型ＧＭ（１，１）。据此模型研究油井由重复压裂前至废弃为止的生产动态。显然重复压裂前油井的日产油量在短期内可能波动较大，但经适当处理并从较长一段时间看，它有递减的趋势。经理论分析认为，生成的一阶累加序列有最大值，由此通过相关计算就可确定油井的剩余可采储量。此外，由于采用日产油量的累加序列建立模型，弱化了原始数据的随机波动性，强化了其规则有序性，而生成的一阶累加序列能更好地满足灰指数规律，适用于ＧＭ（１，１）模型计算。矿场实践表明，该模型所需原始数据少，但预测的精度高，可作为重复压裂选井选层的重要评判依据；也可与其它预测剩余可采储量的方法相互比较和确认，以便对重复压裂进行更加充分的论证。
A grey predicting model of GM(1,1) can be established with the accumulated sequence generated by the oil well decline rate before refracturing according to the theory of grey system.The model can be applied to the study of the oil wells production performance to its abandonment rate.Although the oil well's production rate may fluctuate in short term before refracturing,it has a decline tendency during a longer time if the source data are processed properly.Theoretically,if the data are declined,the accumulated sequence must have a maximum value from which the remaining recoverable reserves may be deduced.On the other hand,the data used in the model are accumulated sequence of daily oil production rate, so that the generated one become more regular,and it satisfied grey exponential law,as is suitable to be calculated by grey model of GM(1,1).It has been testified by field cases that the model needs less source data,but its precision is relatively high.It is possible to be used as a basis in selecting refracturing wells and payzones.Comparision and confirmation can be made with other estimation of remaining recoverable reserves in order to demonstrate refracturing more completely.
出处
《石油学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第1期60-63,共4页
Acta Petrolei Sinica
关键词
重复压裂
可采储量
油井
GM(1
1)模型
grey system model refracturing decline rate recoverable reserve
